I can tell you when to buy not from Tarot Cards but from looking at the data.
Are you able to Spot Housing Crashes
Can You Spot:
My guess is you were unaware of what was happening at the moment it was happening, and looking back it just looks like a bleep.
In the Beginning
I got my license in 1994 and became a full time real estate agent in 2000. The question I get from every buyer is "is this a good time to buy in Fremont?"
I remember the panic of sellers during the 2001 dot.com crash and the fear in buyers to purchase a home during that time. Then, just a few years later, everyone was crazy to buy any house they could find, driving prices way up. It didn't help that the Federal Reserve was keeping rates artificially low, and the subprime market made it possible for anyone to buy a home.
Subprime Mortgages Option ARMS, SISA, NINJA,
Then came the Subprime Crash of Late 2007/2008, so many investment banks and lending institutions failed because of their greed and failure to understand the riskiness of subprime mortgages. For the next couple of years buyers were cautious and a lot of properties were cleansed (changed hands) through foreclosure. We hit bottom between 2008 to 2011. The neighborhoods that dropped in value the most in Fremont were the ones with the lowest school academic scores (Cabrillo Elementary, Grimmer Elementary, Blacow Elementary and Brier Elementary). However these same areas also would see the greatest appreciation from 2012 to 2018, when housing demand kicked in again and homes available for sale were in short supply.
In May of 2018, the housing market experienced a mini crash, but this time the recovery back would be completed by the beginning of 2020. Then in March of 2020 COVID appeared. For the 1st three weeks of the pandemic, we didn't know what was going to happen to the housing market. Logically, you would assume buyers would freeze all decision making until clarity on their jobs. However when people realized they would be locked down for an extended period, there was a flight to the suburbs, for detached homes with land. The biggest loser in the Bay Area was San Francisco. Fremont was one of the biggest winners because it's geocentric to the bay area, has great schools and the highest diversity of any city in the bay area.
When is the Best Time to Buy a Home in Fremont, Newark or Union City
Here's what I told every buyer that ever bought a house with my help. "No one can tell you with certainty what will happen to housing prices next month. You have to make your decisions based on what you know right now. Do you like the home? Can you afford the home? Will it satisfy your known needs for the next 5-7 years? If the answer to these are yes, then it's our job to help you buy the home you want to live life in."
You can't paralyze yourself in waiting for the market to get to your prediction of the housing market. Accept what it is and buy a home you can afford and want to live in. The Bay Area is a tight housing market with little new supply and with strong job growth, so demand has always exceeded supply. So the best time to buy a home you plan to live in, is when you find a home you want to live in and can afford it.
I've at the data in every segment of Fremont
Below you'll find historical sold prices of homes in 3 neighborhoods. A couple of take aways. I've done this for all the neighborhoods in Fremont and they all look similar.
Ardenwood has more transactions than Gomes or Ponderosa Landing. Ardenwood has more density, and we see more people trade up from Ardenwood than from Gomes or Ponderosa Landing.
There will always be outlier sales. Most of the time it's because the property was unique and exceptional. Ardenwood had an outlier sale in March of 2022. If you ignore that, you can see all three neighborhoods followed similar patterns.
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